What is the Real Vertical Alliance(Warring States 16)
Volume 4 - The Vertical and Horizontal Alliances 1
Previous Chapter ：How effective were Shang Yang's Reforms, and what led to their success?(Warring States 15)
History of Warring States Period(Catalog)
After Shang Yang商鞅 was torn apart by chariots, King Hui of Qin秦惠王(r.338-311BC), despite his hatred for the man, acted with cold rationality—he retained all of Shang Yang's policies.
Because he realized the state machinery Shang Yang had built was simply too effective. In just twenty years, Qin秦 State had transformed from a ridiculed western frontier state to being officially recognized by the King of Zhou Dynasty as the supreme authority of the west. That feeling was intoxicating.
This "separate the man from his policies" approach showcased King Hui's political acumen.
Politics is a game demanding ruthless rationality—just as in the Battle of Maling马陵, where Qi demonstrated:
"There are no permanent allies, only permanent interests."
One moment, toasting in camaraderie; the next—when interests shift—turning hostile without hesitation. Yesterday’s ally rescuing you becomes today’s conspirator plotting your downfall.
When facing such betrayals, never react emotionally. Just smile faintly.
Because this is politics’ most fundamental rule: interests reign supreme.
In this game, the cardinal principle is:
"I must keep expanding—but even if I stagnate or decline, I must never leave the table.
As long as I remain seated, the chance for resurgence always exists."
Phrases like "Friendship forged in blood lasts eternally" may be whispered in bed—but never taken seriously when dreams diverge.
This isn’t about moral bankruptcy or treachery.
It’s simply how the game of politics operates.
Political logic demands:
Navigating competing interests.
Maintaining strategic correctness.
Maximizing gains.
Success requires ice-cold rationality:
"Ignore their words—watch their actions."
King Hui of Qin was a consummate statesman.
If Shang Yang’s system worked, it must outlive its creator.
Hate the man? Absolutely.
But uphold his reforms unshaken for a hundred years? Absolutely.
Yet even justified hatred risks collateral damage—
"Leaders are human too."
Some lose opportunities due to this spillover resentment.
Take Su Qin苏秦, the charismatic "motivational guru" we’ll examine next:
A man whose ambitions crashed against this very reality.
Su Qin was a native of Luoyang洛阳—around the King of Zhou.
He studied under Guiguzi (鬼谷子), specializing in international persuasion tactics.
Here’s an introduction to his mentor, the Warring States’ most renowned educator:
Guiguzi, also known as:
Wang Xu (王诩)
Or Wang Chan (王禅) (disputed origins omitted).
Legends credit him with supernatural prowess—but his real legacy was founding a school with 4 core disciplines:
Celestial Divination – Mastering astronomy, geography, and astrological prophecy.
Military Strategy – The art of warfare, tactical formations, and maneuvers so elusive they "baffle even ghosts and gods."
Persuasive Oratory – Rigorous logic, incisive analysis, and speechcraft so potent it "silences ten thousand critics."
Daoist Cultivation – Spiritual refinement, herbal alchemy, breath techniques—and ultimately, "ascension to immortality."
Legend claims Guiguzi’s disciples included:
Shang Yang (商鞅), Reformer
Sun Bin (孙膑), Militery Strategist
Pang Juan (庞涓), Commander
Su Qin (苏秦), Diplomatic Strategist
Zhang Yi (张仪), Diplomatic Strategist
Bai Qi (白起), Commander
Li Mu (李牧), Commander
Wang Jian (王翦), Commander
Yue Yi (乐毅), Commander
Li Si (李斯), Politician
This roster spans over a century—virtually every notable figure of the era allegedly studied under him.
Historical? Unverifiable.
Plausible? Doubtful.
Even with supernatural abilities, could one man live so long?
An alternative theory suggests "Guiguzi" was a title—like "the Pope of Rome"—passed down through generations while retaining the same revered name.
Let’s proceed cautiously—whether Guiguzi was real matters less than the prowess of his disciples.
Take Su Qin, allegedly a graduate of Guiguzi’s "Persuasive Oratory Program." Legends claim his speech could "render ten thousand critics speechless"—instantly brainwashing opponents. No resistance possible.
Yet his career debut flopped spectacularly. King Hui of Qin dismissed him outright.
Su Qin had crafted an elaborate strategy, pitching to the king:
"Qin is now a powerhouse—geographically advantaged, ascendant. But to your south lies vast fertile land: Ba and Shu (巴蜀), nature’s granary. Does Your Majesty desire it?"
His "Xianyang Proposal" (《咸阳对》)—like Zhuge Liang’s later "Longzhong Strategy" (《隆中对》)—highlighted Sichuan四川, the "Land of Abundance," overlooked by warring central states.
Historically, Qin did conquer Ba-Shu（巴-蜀） first before turning east. But here, King Hui’s lingering fury at Shang Yang made him hostile to foreign lobbyists. He rebuffed Su Qin with:
"A bird with unformed feathers cannot soar!
A state without orderly governance cannot conquer!
Goodbye!"
Frustrated, Su Qin crossed the Yellow River and arrived in Zhao赵.
No matter—a skilled salesman always has a market-ready pitch. The genius of persuasion lies in crafting a "dream blueprint" for any scenario.
Yet his second attempt at "dream entrepreneurship" failed even harder.
This time, he didn’t even meet the ruler. Zhao’s chancellor, Lord Zhao Cheng (赵成)—younger brother of Marquis Su of Zhao (赵肃侯,r.349-326)—dismissed him with contempt:
"What nonsense is this? Pure drivel! Throw him out!"
So Su Qin moved on again, searching for his next opportunity.
Fortunately, with many states to choose from, Su Qin adjusted his strategy: His "first breakthrough" needed the right target.
"Qin and Zhao are major powers—hard to fool, especially for a nobody like me. Better to infiltrate a smaller market first... say, the edge of civilization."
So he headed north to Yan燕—then the northern frontier of Chinese civilization.
At the time, Yan was a backwater, remote from the Central Plains. Militarily and economically feeble, it paled against major states. Yet even in this "small market," reality defied Su Qin’s expectations.
He waited over a year in Yan without securing an audience.
But finally, his chance arrived: He met Duke Wen of Yan (燕文公).
For small states, you must remind them of the tigers at their door.
Su Qin’s pitch went like this:
"Though Yan spans over 2,000 li（about 800 Km）, fields hundreds of thousands of troops, 600 chariots, and 6,000 warhorses, with grain reserves lasting years—let’s be honest: we’re no great power. The gap is vast, right?
Yet your lands remain coveted but rarely invaded. No annihilated armies, no slain generals. Why? Because Zhao shields you to the south.
Zhao has fought five battles against Qin recently—three wins, two losses. Mutual attrition. But complacency kills. Qin is a thousand li away; Zhao is just a hundred. If Qin hates us, it’s too distant to strike. But if Zhao turns hostile— their army reaches us in ten days. Today’s worry isn’t Qin, but Zhao.
Think: If Zhao can trade blows with Qin, crushing us would be child’s play.
Luckily, I have connections in Zhao. Let me persuade their king to ally with Yan— a brotherhood in perpetuity."
Duke Wen of Yan was swayed by this mix of threats and bluffs—or more precisely, deceived by that final line.
He truly believed Su Qin had connections in Zhao and could influence its king. So he gave Su Qin startup capital to head south to Zhao.
Thus, this penniless upstart secured his first angel investment through pure persuasion.
With these funds, Su Qin journeyed to Zhao—launching decades of geopolitical maneuvering that would shake the Warring States world.
When luck strikes, nothing can stop it.
This time, as Su Qin headed south to Zhao:
Chancellor Zhao Cheng—who’d previously snubbed him—was dead.
Now armed with capital, Su Qin bought an immediate audience with Marquis Su of Zhao (赵肃侯), bypassing another year-long wait.
At the meeting, Su Qin never mentioned Yan’s proposed alliance. Instead, he pitched a grander vision:
"A six-state coalition against Qin—with you, Marqui of Zhao, as its leader."
Thus debuted the legendary "Vertical Alliance" (合纵).
Here’s how Su Qin sold his vision:
"Among today’s major powers, only Qin and Zhao wield real strength. Qin sees us as its thorn—you know this.
Yet it dares not attack us outright. Why?
Fear of Han韩 and Wei魏 striking its back.
But if Qin keeps expanding, Han and Wei—already defenseless—will fall. Then we’re next."
Su Qin unfurled a map:
The six states east of Mount Yao (崤山) held 5x Qin’s territory and 10x its troops.
A united assault would crush Qin—yet politicians exaggerate Qin’s might, pushing 'peace' while bribing states to cede land. They reap riches; nations suffer.
"I reject such treachery.
Here’s the solution: Lock Qin behind Hangu Pass forever.
A 'Vertical Alliance' (合纵)—named for the six states’ north-south alignment. Terms:
If Qin attacks one, all five retaliate.
Any defector gets crushed by the rest.
Yan is already onboard. If you endorse me, I’ll secure the other four for you."
Marquis Su of Zhao bought into this vision of "world peace,"
He granted Su Qin the title "Lord of Wu’an (武安君)" and a second round of angel investment:
100 chariots
24,000 taels of gold
100 pairs of white jade
3,600 bolts of silk
All to realize this grand dream.
Grand dreams demand grand investments, after all.
Yet Marquis of Zhao, easily swayed by Su Qin’s grand design, failed to notice its two fatal flaws—or rather, its sheer impracticality.
Flaw 1: Only Qin’s neighboring states—Han, Zhao, and Wei—faced real threats.
The other three states had no tangible stakes, especially Qin and Chu楚, which maintained generations of intermarriage.
Wei had been battered by Qin.
Han lived in daily dread.
But the rest lacked visceral fear of Qin.
"Others’ survival rarely weighs on one’s priorities—let alone spending real resources to rescue them."
Flaw 2: The pledge for mutual military aid was unreliable.
For instance:
If Qin attacked Wei, news would:
Reach Han (closest) in 2 days.
Reach Yan (farthest) in a month.
Mobilizing troops would take another half-month.
By the time allied forces arrived, the battle would already be lost.
Worse, each state would hedge:
"What if others repel Qin before I even mobilize?
And if I defect—would the other five really punish me?"
Unlikely. As before: Who spends their own gold for others’ wars?
Fundamentally, from a strategic perspective to contain or defeat Qin, allying the six eastern states paled in comparison to uniting Han and Wei with Qin’s western and northern tribal allies.
Here’s why:
If Qin attacked Han or Wei, these flanking forces could execute a "save Zhao by besieging Wei" maneuver—while keeping captured lands for themselves.
In political transactions, interests trump treaties every time.
Yet even if such an alliance formed, Qin wouldn’t flinch.
Qin’s geographic supremacy shone here:
Hangu Pass函谷关 and Wu Pass武关 locked out Han, Wei, and Chu.
Its northern and western frontiers faced no credible threats.
Thus, Qin inherently crushed any "anti-Qin coalition" theory.
The Rhapsody of the Epang Palace (《阿房宫赋》) declared: "The six states fell by their own hands—not Qin’s."
This view is steeped in hindsight bias.
But blame is misplaced—China’s classical thinkers rarely prioritized causal chains. The author saw only the six states’ infighting enabling Qin’s rise, while ignoring:
Why the infighting occurred.
Why Qin could exploit it.
The root cause: Each state bordered different rivals and pursued immediate self-interest.
"A morsel today beats a feast next year."
In chaos, no one drafts five-year plans.
This mirrors psychological studies where poorer children often eat the offered candy immediately, while wealthier kids resist temptation for long-term rewards. (Note: This describes observed patterns, not discrimination.)
Evolution shaped this instinct:
Resource-scarce environments train people to seize immediate gains—"Eat the candy today, or it’s gone tomorrow."
Resource-abundant environments foster patience—"Even if lost, another candy will come."
The Seven Warring States operated identically.
The international landscape shifts too fast—no player is naive.
A "Vertical Alliance" wasn’t impossible, but it never served the core interests of the six states’ peoples.
The game-theoretic endgame of their infighting was inevitable: The strongest would devour the rest.
Small coalitions might work, but grand pacts like this were doomed.
Why? The larger the alliance:
The more conflicting interests.
The more hidden agendas.
The harder to unify.
(See today’s EU as Exhibit A.)
Yet this inherently flawed concept didn’t stop Lecturer Su Qin from leveraging his silver tongue to sway Han, Wei, Qi, and Chu.
The snowball of persuasion kept rolling.
He secured the ministerial seals of all six states—a dazzling feat.
Clarification:
"Six-state ministerial seals" didn’t mean Su Qin became each nation’s premier.
Actual premiers were typically the ruler’s in-laws, uncles, or brothers—the real powerholders.
Su Qin’s titles were "guest ministers" (客卿)—symbolic sinecures with no real authority.
Why appoint them?
States strategically planted such figureheads abroad—sometimes openly—to lobby for their interests.
Functionally akin to modern ambassadors.
Su Qin’s role?
"Six-State Director of Anti-Qin Propaganda."
Director Su was a dealmaker—a grandmaster of deals.
His trade? Gambling with the entire world as chips, flipping stakes at will.
The "Vertical Alliance" was always just a shell company for his enrichment. He cared nothing for the six states’ fate—his initial pitch to Qin had proposed annihilating those very states.
At core, he was no different from the land-ceding lobbyists he’d scorned before King Zhao—only more sophisticated in method.
His later actions would reveal his true nature.
First, why didn’t he care about the six states’ survival?
He feared Qin’s weakness more—because if Qin weren’t a threat, his "Vertical Alliance" would have no market, and his "MLM Directorship" would collapse.
So he planted a mole in Qin—someone who could:
Coordinate with him.
Make Qin attack his designated targets at critical moments.
This mole’s impact far surpassed Su Qin’s.
Su Qin merely used the six states as ATMs.
But this man went beyond persuasion—he operated on another level.
Later known as the Warring States’ top con artist:
Shang Yang merely deceived a prince.
This man manipulated kings like puppets.
Who is this guy?
It's Su Qin’s fellow disciple.
Zhang Yi (张仪)
To be Continued.
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